Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Week 3 Picks

The Methodology: PredictionMachine.com simulates each game 50,000 times to determine which players are most likely to product the most points each week based on the scenatio. Here are highlights of their optimal lineup for Week 2, which spans Sunday at 1 pm (EST) through the Monday night game. Picks are chosen based on their expected points relative to daily fantasy salary. These picks are intended for use in the DraftKings Guaranteed Prize Pool contest and are based on the top 15% of player performances across the 50,000 simulations.

For the complete lineup and for optimized lineups in other daily fantasy formats, visit their website.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (vs. Bears, $7,000, 34.2 projected points): The defending NFC champions are 0-2 and will look to right the behind Wilson and they face a Chicago defense that has struggled all year, ranking 25th in yards allowed per pass play, 31st in sack rate and 32nd (last) in points allowed. The key here is value as Wilson is the eighth most costly quarterback even though he’s projected to score the most fantasy points.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (at Patriots, $3,700, 19.8 projected points): Game flow is the big story here. The Patriots are favored by two touchdowns and there is a high likelihood that the Jaguars will have to throw early and often, which means lots of targets for Jacksonville’s No. 2 wideout. The defending Super Bowl champs are defensively challenged thus far, ranking bottom 10 in most key stats, including yards allowed (29th) and points allowed (23rd). Remember, it’s never garbage time when YOUR guys score. That’s when other people’s trash becomes your fantasy treasure.

James Starks, RB, Packers (Chiefs, $3,000, 21.5 projected points): The salary is disconnected from his expected role Monday night as starting running back, given first-teamer Eddie Lacy (ankle) is not expected to play. Riding the offensive wave created by the hyper efficient Aaron Rodgers is a huge plus, as the Packers even against a solid Chiefs defense should be in the red zone early and often. Playing at home is also a plus. But there is some risk if Lacy toughs it out and starts after getting carted off the field last week. The good news: this uncertainty creates better pot odds because Starks’s ownership even at this bargain price thus won’t be sky high.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots (vs. Jaguars, $7,400, 31.8 projected points): This is an insane price for a tight end. It’s $1,600 more than the next highest (Jimmy Graham) and $2,400 more than the rest of the field. A spread like this is extremely unusual. But this is how much better Gronk is than every other man at his position. Will this be a game where the Patriots try to ramp up their running game, which has been mostly ignored the first two weeks? That seems unlikely and even then the Patriots will feed No. 87.

Houston Texans, DST (Buccaneers, $3,200, 12.8 projected points): Even though Jameis Winston played better last week (he could hardly play worse), the Bucs still yielded seven points to the Saints defense, which may be the worst in football. The Texans of course also have J.J. Watt, who seems overdue for a defensive score. Plus Winston is getting sacked on a 30th worst 13% of pass plays. Another key for picking defense is the game location and the Texans are at home, too.

Wall Street Journal